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Fact-checked, always

Sources & Methodology

We never invent statistics, quotes, or news articles. Every claim on this site is either clearly sourced or clearly marked as a campaign view.

Page last reviewed 19 September 2026.

What our status badges mean

Every figure on this site carries one of these labels. We never present a live snapshot as an annual average, or a historical figure as if it were current.

LIVE

A genuine current-day figure — today's petrol price, the current Fuel Duty rate, today's exchange rate.

LATEST AVAILABLE

The most recently published figure for something that isn't measured daily — e.g. CPI inflation, average earnings, a CMA monitoring report.

YTD

A year-to-date figure covering part of the current year only — not a full-year total, and not directly comparable to a completed year's average.

HISTORICAL

A figure from a completed period (a full year, or a specific dated event) — never a live or in-progress figure.

ESTIMATE

A figure we have calculated ourselves (e.g. by subtraction, or by applying an average margin), rather than one directly published by a primary source.

PROJECTION

A forward-looking figure that has not happened yet (e.g. a future announced tax rate) — explicitly labelled as a projection, never shown as if it were an actual reported outcome.

NOT YET AVAILABLE

We looked for a verified figure and could not find one from a primary source. We show this rather than guessing.

How our calculations work

The pump price breakdown

Fuel Duty and the VAT rate are exact, published rates. The retailer margin is the CMA's own reported market-wide average for the relevant month. Everything else (crude oil, exchange rate effect, refining, wholesale, distribution) is shown as a single 'wholesale, refining & distribution' figure — the remainder after duty, VAT and margin are subtracted — because no further verified public split of that remainder exists.

Currency conversion

US-dollar company results are converted to pounds sterling using a single Bank of England spot rate (17 September 2026), applied uniformly to each company's most recent full-year results. This gives an approximate GBP equivalent, not each company's own reporting-period average rate.

The £50 'Follow the Money' flow

Fuel Duty and VAT amounts are calculated directly from their published rates and are labelled KNOWN. The industry/retail portion is labelled ESTIMATED, because it is either a calculated remainder or based on an averaged CMA margin figure, not a specific verified transaction.

Purchasing-power figures

Figures like 'litres per hour of minimum-wage work' are transparent arithmetic (fuel price ÷ hourly wage), not a composite 'affordability score' or index. We show the calculation so you can check it yourself.

What we cannot know exactly

Being honest about the limits of the evidence is part of the methodology, not a footnote.

  • How much profit any oil or energy company makes specifically from petrol and diesel sold at UK forecourts — this is not separately published by any of the five major companies we cover.
  • A fuel-specific breakdown of VAT receipts — HMRC publishes VAT receipts by return type/sector, not by product, so a 'VAT on fuel' total does not exist as an official figure.
  • A verified, primary-sourced historical crude-oil price series compatible with our UK pump-price data — where we could not verify a series against a primary source (e.g. EIA, ICE), we show 'data not available' rather than an unverified third-party figure.
  • The exact reason any single petrol station charges a particular price on a particular day — regional and local price variation involves many factors, and we report what regulators have found rather than inferring motives.

Latest news

No live news feed is connected yet.

We never invent news articles or headlines. Once a verified news or data feed is connected, genuine, sourced articles will appear here automatically. In the meantime, browse the official sources below directly.